Colombia's largest insurgent group and President Alvaro Uribe are close to
reaching an accord to exchange dozens of jailed rebels for hostages held by
the guerrillas, but experts are sceptical that a swap will lead to peace
talks.
Commanders from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or Farc, which
has been fighting to overthrow the state for four decades, on Monday offered
a conditional ceasefire if a zone is demilitarised for 45 days.
Within hours, Mr Uribe authorised his peace commissioner to seek a deal with
the Farc to establish a temporary safe haven in the south of Colombia to
facilitate a prisoner swap, as well as study a "peace process".
Farc rebels, who have been repelled into the jungle by a US-backed
counter-insurgency effort, are holding hostage dozens of Colombians,
including Ingrid Betancourt, a former presidential candidate, and three US
military contractors.
Alvaro Leyva, a politician who is attempting to broker a prisoner exchange,
said a swap could open the door to peace talks. "If we achieve the first
goal, there's a good chance of advancing to the second stage," he said on
Tuesday.
The bright political development reveals a marked softening in the positions
of both the guerrillas and the government, experts said.
Mr Uribe, elected in 2002 and re-elected last May, has never ruled out peace
talks, but he has generally favoured tackling the rebels militarily. The
Farc, meanwhile, has until now rejected any talks with Mr Uribe.
Mr Uribe said on Tuesday that he himself would be willing to meet with the
Farc's leadership if that would help the search for a peace agreement.
Jorge Restrepo, director of Cerac, a think-tank in Bogotá, said a prisoner
swap had been made more likely because the Farc has been militarily weakened
and because Mr Uribe is under pressure from Europe.
"The Farc has received a pounding, and they understand that the pendulum in
Colombian public opinion is moving towards peace," Mr Restrepo said. "But
with Uribe this has a lot to do with pressure from Europe, he needs to show
that he is not only interested in negotiations with the paramilitaries."
Mr Uribe has overseen a demobilisation process with paramilitary groups
which has been criticised by human rights groups for being too lenient on
warlords with close ties to drugs trafficking.
Mr Restrepo cautioned, however, that peace talks are still a way off: "It's
moving fast and it looks like there is going to be a prisoner exchange. But
I'm not very optimistic on peace talks, the positions are still very far
apart."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f7b6f240-52fd-11db-99c5-0000779e2340.html
By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas
Published: October 3 2006 18:07 | Last updated: October 3 2006 18:07